WHAT DOES THE AUGUST RETROGRESSION MEAN FOR FUTURE PRIORITY DATES?

The retrogression cut-off in the EB3 category pushed back priority dates to 2020.  While a retrogression is never great news, this retrogression is not as dramatic as it might seem at first look.  Our sense is that when the October 2023 visa bulletin is published, it will show an EB-3 (non-India and non-China) with a mid-2022 priority date.  However, because the Department of State is not forthcoming with their demand and usage data, please assume large error bars around our projection.

A significant retrogression of priority dates is common nearly every summer.  Visa numbers began to run out toward September 30, which is the end of the fiscal year.  The DOS is trying to use the last of the 140,000 annual employment-based visas in September.  (Note- in some years the employment-based visa quota is greater than 140,000).  While the DOS could theoretically release all 140,000 immigrant visas on October 1 every year, they do not do this so that there is a steady stream of immigrant visas throughout the year.

In October an additional 140,000 EB visas will be allocated, which is why we expect the dates to progress again.  Again, it is difficult to be too precise with an October 2023 EB-3 projection because we do not know too much about the DOS’ demand and usage data.

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Join us for this FREE webinar to learn more about:

• Green Card Process for Schedule A
• Healthcare Worker Certificates
• PERM for Healthcare Workers
• H-1Bs for Healthcare Workers
• Priority Dates/Retrogression Predictions

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JULY 2021 VISA BULLETIN: ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

The Department of State has just issued the July 2020 Visa Bulletin.  This is the tenth Visa Bulletin of Fiscal Year 2021. This blog post analyzes this month's Visa Bulletin.

Visa Bulletin

Table A: Final Action Dates -- Applications with these dates may be approved for their Green Card (Permanent Residency card) or Immigrant Visa appointment.

Employment	All Chargeability	CHINA	INDIA	PHILIPPINES
1st	C	C	C	C
2nd	C	1-Dec-17	1-Jun-11	C
3rd	C	1-Jan-19	1-Jan-13	C

Table B: Dates of Filing

The USCIS will be using the Table A: Final Action Dates chart for I-485 employment-based filings. A beneficiary must be current on the above Table A chart in order to file their I-485, Adjustment of Status applications.  USCIS Visa Bulletin Dates

MU Law Analysis

Both the Philippines and Worldwide (All Other) EB-3 continue to be current. Our opinion remains that these categories will stay current for the foreseeable future and into 2022.

India EB-1 remains current, which continues to lead to extra visas will flowing down to India EB2 and EB3.  India EB-2 again moved ahead, this time by 6 months, a positive trend that has continued and can be expected to continue.  Similarly, India EB-3 leapt ahead 14 months.  We will see favorable processing times for the rest of 2021 and into 2022.

China EB-2 and EB-3 again both moved forward by seven and four months, respectively.  This trend should continue into 2022.  China EB-1 remains current.

MAY 2021 VISA BULLETIN: ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

The Department of State has just issued the June 2020 Visa Bulletin. This is the ninth Visa Bulletin of Fiscal Year 2021. This blog post analyzes this month's Visa Bulletin.

Visa Bulletin

Table A: Final Action Dates -- Applications with these dates may be approved for their Green Card (Permanent Residency card) or Immigrant Visa appointment.

Employment- based	All Other	CHINA	INDIA	PHILIPPINES
1st	C	C	C	C
2nd	C	01MAY17	01DEC10	C
3rd	C	01SEP18	1NOV11	C

 

Table B: Dates of Filing

The USCIS will be using the Table A: Final Action Dates chart for I-485 employment-based filings. A beneficiary must be current on the above Table A chart in order to file their I-485, Adjustment of Status applications. USCIS Adjustment of Status page.

MU Law Analysis

Both the Philippines and Worldwide (All Other) EB-3 continue to be current. Our opinion remains that these categories will stay current for the foreseeable future.

India EB-1 remains current, which continues to lead to extra visas will flowing down to India EB2 and EB3.  India EB-2 again moved ahead, this time by 4 months, a positive trend that has continued.  EB-3 also jumped up.  It moved 4 months.  We will see favorable processing times for the rest of 2021.

China EB-2 and EB-3 again both moved forward by a few months, a trend that should continue. China EB-1 remains current, reflecting the paucity of visas that were issued under the last year of the Trump presidency and the COVID pandemic.

MAY 2021 VISA BULLETIN: ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

The Department of State has just issued the May 2020 Visa Bulletin. This is the eighth Visa Bulletin of Fiscal Year 2021. This blog post analyzes this month's Visa Bulletin.

Visa Bulletin

Table A: Final Action Dates -- Applications with these dates may be approved for their Green Card (Permanent Residency card) or Immigrant Visa appointment.

Employment- based	All Other	CHINA	INDIA	PHILIPPINES
1st	C	C	C	C
2nd	C	01DEC16	01AUG10	C
3rd	C	15MAY18	01FEB11	C

 

Table B: Dates of Filing

The USCIS will be using the Table A: Final Action Dates chart for I-485 employment-based filings. A beneficiary must be current on the above Table A chart in order to file their I-485, Adjustment of Status applications.  USCIS Adjustment of Status page.

MU Law Analysis

Both the Philippines and Worldwide (All Other) EB-3 continue to be current. Our opinion remains that these categories will stay current for the foreseeable future.

India EB-1 remains current, which continues to lead to extra visas will flowing down to India EB2 and EB3.  India EB-2 again moved ahead, this time by 3 months.  EB-3 also jumped up.  It moved 6 months, into 2011.  We could see favorable processing times for the rest of 2021.

China EB-2 and EB-3 again both moved forward by a few months, a trend that should continue.  China EB-1 remains reflecting the paucity of visas that were issued under the last year of the Trump presidency and the COVID pandemic. 

FEBRUARY 2021 VISA BULLETIN: ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

The Department of State has just issued the February 2020 Visa Bulletin. This is the fifth Visa Bulletin of Fiscal Year 2021. This blog post analyzes this month's Visa Bulletin.

Visa Bulletin

Table A: Final Action Dates -- Applications with these dates may be approved for their Green Card (Permanent Residency card) or Immigrant Visa appointment.

 

Employment- based	All Other	CHINA	INDIA	PHILIPPINES
1st	C	01JAN20	01JAN20	C
2nd	C	15JUN16	12OCT09	C
3rd	C	01JAN18	01APR10	C

 

Table B: Dates of Filing

The USCIS will be using the Table A: Final Action Dates chart for I-485 employment-based filings. A beneficiary must be current on the above Table A chart in order to file their I-485, Adjustment of Status applications.

MU Law Analysis

Both the Philippines and Worldwide (All Other) EB-3 continue to be current.  Our opinion remains that these categories will stay current for the foreseeable future.  This month’s Visa Bulletin included a note confirming that these categories will stay current at least through May, which is the furthest projection that the DOS will make, i.e. 3 months into the future.

India EB-1 moved ahead 3.5 more months, after six months in December and five months in January. Unfortunately, India EB-2 and EB-3 each moved ahead by only about two weeks.  These slow progressions, along with the large number of India EB-2 and EB-3 filings in October, November, and December, probably means that we should only expect 1-4 week movements in India EB-2 or EB-3 for at least the rest of 2021.  This month’s Visa Bulletin included a note confirming that the EB-2 and EB-3 categories should move two weeks on average through the May Visa Bulletin.

China EB-2 and EB-3 again both moved forward by a few weeks, a trend that should continue. China EB-1 showed more progress than expected, perhaps because of declining rates of visa issuance out of the American posts in China.  This month’s Visa Bulletin included a note that says that EB-2 and EB-3 should move 2-3 weeks on average through the May Visa Bulletin.

NOVEMBER 2020 VISA BULLETIN: LATE PUBLICATION, BUT EXCELLENT NEWS

The Department of State has just issued the November 2020 Visa Bulletin. This is the second Visa Bulletin of Fiscal Year 2021. This blog post analyzes this month's Visa Bulletin.

November 2020 Visa Bulletin

Table A: Final Action Dates -- Applications with these dates may be approved for their Green Card (Permanent Residency card) or Immigrant Visa appointment.

Employment- based	All Other	CHINA	INDIA	PHILIPPINES
1st	C	01DEC18	01DEC18	C
2nd	C	22APR16	22SEP09	C
3rd	C	01OCT17	01MAR10	C

Table B: Dates of Filing

Importantly, the USCIS announced that it will allow the more favorable Date of Filing chart for I-485 Adjustment of Status. This means that all employment-based immigrants in EB-1, EB-2 or EB-3 can file their I-485s starting October 1, 2020.  However, if they are natives of India or China, their priority date must be earlier than these dates: 

MU Law Analysis

For reasons that remain unclear the Department of State held back on publishing this Visa Bulletin about 2 weeks longer than usual.  Nevertheless, the Visa Bulletin showed continued positive trends. 

Both the Philippines and Worldwide (All Other) EB-3 continue to be current.  We expect these categories to stay current for the foreseeable future.  The only constraint to the Philippine EB-3 visas being issued is the capacity at the Embassy in Manila.  It remains to be seen how increasing COVID infection rates bear on embassies capacities.

The good news extended to India.  India EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 all moved forward, ranging from several weeks to several months in all of these categories.  Similarly, China EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 all moved forward at about the same rates as India.

MU expects that future Visa Bulletins will continue to have positive news, including continued forward progression in the Chinese and Indian categories.  We also expect the Philippine and Worldwide categories will remain current for the foreseeable future.

OCTOBER 2020 VISA BULLETIN: EB-3 CURRENT FOR ALL BUT CHINA, INDIA

The Department of State has just issued the October 2020 Visa Bulletin. This is the first Visa Bulletin of Fiscal Year 2021. This blog post analyzes this month's Visa Bulletin.

October 2021 Visa Bulletin

Table A: Final Action Dates -- Applications with these dates may be approved for their Green Card (Permanent Residency card) or Immigrant Visa appointment.

Employment- based	All Other	CHINA	INDIA	PHILIPPINES
1st	C	01JUN18	01JUN18	C
2nd	C	01MAR16	01SEP09	C
3rd	C	01JUL17	15JAN10	C

MU Law Analysis

This was the Visa Bulletin that we have been expecting for some time.  Because of the State Department’s inability to issues immigrant visas for much of 2020, there are many, many immigrant visas that are now part of allocation for the new fiscal year. 

Both the Philippines and Worldwide (All Other) EB-3 have become current.  We expect these categories to stay current for the foreseeable future.  The only constraint to the Philippine EB-3 visas being issued is the capacity at the Embassy in Manila. 

The good news extended to India.  India EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 all moved forward, about 3-5 months in all of these categories.  Similarly, China EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 all moved forward at about the same rates as India.  We do not expect a retrogression in these categories.

AUGUST 2020 VISA BULLETIN: EB3 JUMPS ONE FULL YEAR

The Department of State has just issued the August 2020 Visa Bulletin. This is the eleventh Visa Bulletin of Fiscal Year 2020. This blog post analyzes this month's Visa Bulletin.

August 2020 Visa Bulletin

Table A: Final Action Dates -- Applications with these dates may be approved for their Green Card (Permanent Residency card) or Immigrant Visa appointment.

Employment- based	All Other	CHINA	INDIA	PHILIPPINES
1st	C	08FEB18	08FEB18	C
2nd	C	15JAN16	08JUL09	C
3rd	01APR19	15FEB17	01OCT09	01APR19

MU Law Analysis

This Visa Bulletin continued the big progressions that we saw in the June and July Visa Bulletins.  MU Law has been calling on the DOS to rapidly advance the dates so that all immigrant visas are used in 2020, and they finally responded in a big way.  The big story is the one-year progression Worldwide EB-3 and Philippines EB-3.  These EB-3 dates are now at April 2019.

The good news was not limited to those categories.  India EB-1 and India EB-3 also jumped forward.  EB-1 moved ahead ten months to February 2018, and EB-3 by five months, to October 2009.  Only India EB-2 disappointed, staying at July 8, 2009.  India EB-2 and EB-3 are inverted.  MU Law expects India EB-2 and EB-3 to move in sync for the foreseeable future.  EB-2s will downgrade their petitions to EB-3 to take advantage of the more favorable processing date, leading to an equilibrium between the two categories. 

All of the China categories moved forward as well, as expected in a year where few immigrant visa have been issued. 

MU Law expects the favorable employment-based visa dates to continue next fiscal year.  We explained why on this blog post.