I run a version of this post every few years. Here is the 2015
version.
The Economist liked that version of the post, replicating
it here.
The data leads to the unimpeachable conclusion that the H-1B visa does
not take away US workers jobs. The H-1B
visa fills jobs where it is nearly impossible to find qualified US workers.
In 2009, a mere 9,000 H-1Bs were received in the first month of
H-1B processing. It would be 264 days
before the H-1B cap was reached. In 2010, it took 300 days until the H-1B cap
was reached. In 2011, there were 236
days between the April 1, 2011 cap opening and the November 23, 2011 cap being
reached. Not coincidentally, the US
employment rate from 2009-2011 ranged between
eight and ten percent.
On
the other hand, the H-1B cap was reached on the very first day in 2007, 2008,
2013 and 2014, mirroring the low unemployment rate.
The lack of H-1B petition filings in years when the unemployment
rate is high is compelling evidence against the argument that
internationally-trained workers are being used to displace American workers and
lower US workers' salaries.
Why? Because if H-1B visa
labor was being used primarily to lower US workers’ salaries, then H-1B filing
numbers would not correlate with US unemployment rates. If anything, the reverse would happen because
the incentive to reduce workers’ salaries is likely greater in a recessed
economy, not less.
The President and his hackneyed hatchet man Steven Miller
do not believe in data. The President
recently signed a ridiculous Executive Order
limiting permanent residency visas (green cards) for 60 days. The Order accomplishes nothing, but may set
the table for a broader visa ban, which could include H-1Bs and other temporary
visas.
Miller
recently said that "the most important thing is to turn off the faucet
of new immigrant labor,” as if this will save American jobs. It won’t.
Limiting immigrant labor has never saved a single American job and it
never will.
Miller
is plainly not interested in the American economy. He gave away his real interest when he said
that the temporary ban would limit "chains of follow-on migration." That is Miller’s real interest: stopping all
forms of legal migration, which he believes waters down American culture.
This logic is straightforward.
Politicians should see employment visas for what they are -- tools for
growing industries to fill labor shortages. Organizations -- and governments -- work
better when they work on data and not on nonsense and rhetoric.
____
Here is an updated version of the chart. The most important part of the data looks at
the spike in unemployment from 2008-2014.
The post-2014 data is less relevant.
It is worth nothing that since 2014 we have had record levels of H-1B
petitions, and full employment.
